PM Bidzina Ivnishvili declared again that till the end of this year, he will leave politics and his post. It can dramatically change the situation in the political life of Georgia. Georgian Journal talked to expert Nika Chitadze about governing methods of Georgian Dream and National Movement, presidential elections and how the statement of Bidzina Ivanishvili can influence the results of the elections.
Q. What do you think about the statement of the Prime Minister and can leading coalition retain power without its main figure?
A. If Bidzina Ivanishvili is going to go from politics it can influence presidential elections because the candidacy of Margvelashvili will have clout in case if it is seen together with Ivanishvili. Most of the politicians received votes during the October elections because of their belonging to the coalition and because of their link to Ivanishvili. It can be explained with the fact of wealth of Bidzina Ivanishvili. The results of NDA research in May backs this opinion when Margvelashvili took 10th place among the politicians of Georgian Dream. We have to take into account the decreasing rating of the candidate of Georgian Dream too. But in spite of that fact, Margvelashvili has an advantage, though I think that second round of elections will take place anyway.
Q. Whom do you see as the second candidate in case of the second round of presidential elections?
A. I think this candidate is Davit Bakradze. His peaceful attitude and political experience arouse sympathies. I think political debates between Bakradze and Margvelashvili will be interesting. We hope that they will talk about foreign relations, social issues, and rural economy. If Ivanishvili leaves the post of Prime Minister, we would like to know what position he will take in the society. Will he stay in politics or will he become a social person?
Q. Have the position of the west and stress on the part of the western partners of Georgia influenced Bidzina Ivanisvhili to quit his position?
A. I think it is possible. We see official negative reactions from the west: congress of USA expressed its attitude to selective justice and arrest of former prime minister; European Union also expressed its negative attitude regarding some events. Ivanishvili realizes that there are problems in connection with economical growth, with budget. That’s why we can’t exclude the idea that Ivanisvhili wants to escape responsibility and stay as a hero for the supporters of Georgian Dream. He may want to be remembered as a person, who did the essential thing and removed National Movement from the governing position. After this he can again play the role of Maecenas.
Q. Mikheil Sakashvili received the letter from Anders Fogh Rasmussen; he expressed his attitude to the president. He appreciates his activity, which brought Georgia closer to the Euro-Atlantic structures. At the same time, Bidzina Ivanishvili talks about quitting politics. Are there coincidences in these facts and can we say that Georgian Dream is under pressure of western partners of Georgia?
A. EU as well as USA have their important geopolitical and economic interests in Georgia. Our country is a little but important point because of its geopolitical location. Of course, Europe is interested in the integration of Georgia into the European structures. For America Georgia is also an important partner because our country is a neighbor of USA’s geopolitical ‘enemy’ Russia; it is near to Iran too. But in spite of these strategic points, it is important to develop democratic institutes in Georgia. The west sees it, taking into account the events of May 17 and February 8, that the country has no prospect of development. There were invasions in self-governances bodies, crime rate increased… we can even call this situation as anarchy.